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June 28, 2011 / davebirss

Time’s up for MySpace – the deathday sweepstake

OK. So it’s probably illegal for me to start up a betting thing on the web. But let’s just imagine it’s OK. And I’ve got a hypothetical 50 quid to throw into a pot. I’d throw my hat in the ring and announce:

I reckon MySpace will eventually croak on 17th December 2011.

And here’s why.

I read today how MySpace is about to layoff 150 people – out of 400. That’s some pretty heavy shit for any company that size to deal with. That kind of radical measure means that the company will likely have to restructure pretty radically in order to continue, it will have super-low morale amongst everyone – including the management who have to do the dirty work – and it doesn’t send out an encouraging message to the users.

It’s not been a good year. They already let nearly half of their staff go in January, several of their senior management have fled the ship and nobody seems to be interested in paying the $100 million price tag for the dead duck. Which really sucks for Fox who bought it four years ago for $580 million.

But I’m not surprised it’s finally in its death-rattle phase. I’ve dealt with MySpace over the years and didn’t think much of them. As well as having an ugly and unusable site – they had an internal arrogance that I found difficult to deal with.

So I decided to have a look at their Alexa stats and then draw a lovely red line on their downward trend to see when it would cross the x-axis. And this is what I came up with:

This is their daily reach as a percentage of web traffic. In two years it’s gone from 5% of the internet to about 1%. That’s quite an achievement. I don’t think they could have lost visitors any faster if they’d been on a mission to do so. And my projection estimates that they’ll join the great webmaster in the sky just before the end of the year.

Then there’s this rather telling graph:

This shows how many pages the average punter is looking at. It seems their current refreshed design couldn’t help the fact that people just don’t like the content of the site. The average person is looking at less than 5 pages on their visit. It seems to have stabilised slightly – but the downward trend still points somewhere in the middle of December.

And what about this:

People are only staying on the site for about 4 minutes. That’s enough time to listen to one track and then close the page. Hmmm. That’s not g0od news for all those bands who are trying to get people to listen to their carefully crafted recordings. And as much as it’s flattened out again – the next steps is listening to less than one song. Which is zero songs. And that looks like it might happen before Santa brings you the latest Jedward Live DVD this year.

So there we have it. I reckon 17th December 2011 is the day we can dance on the MySpace grave.

What’s your estimation?

4 Comments

Leave a Comment
  1. Dom Udall / Jun 28 2011 11:50 am

    It’s still alive..?!

    I remember that being my first jump on the social bandwagon was on MySpace. Made a lot of real life friends there. Shame that it’s not even maintaining itself through the music side of things, would have thought it’d still be the choice for bands over SoundCloud and the ilk.

    A sad day it will be.

    14th Jan 2012. Wage you a tenner.

    • davebirss / Jun 28 2011 1:59 pm

      A sad day? Really?

      I preferred GeoCities to MySpace. It was far more tasteful and useable.

      I have no fond memories of Friends Reunited – my first foray into social networking. I’d may put a prediction on that death too.

  2. Dom Udall / Jun 28 2011 1:11 pm

    PS there’s always betable.com if you want to throw your £50 into the mix 😉

Trackbacks

  1. WIll you join the MySpace Death Day sweepstake? « The Dictionary of Specific Generalities

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